PENGGUNAAN METODE ERROR CORRECTION MODEL DALAM ANALISIS TERHADAP INDIKATOR UNTUK MENGUKUR PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA TAHUN 1965-2016

Abstract

Economic growth can provide information about the extent to which economic activity in a given period provides additional income so that it can be assessed the condition of a country can run well or not. The measurement of economic growth can be done by using the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) indicator of constant prices of expenditure approach which includes Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE), General Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GGFCE), Export, Import, and Investment or Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF). Economic growth in Indonesia from year to year fluctuated, as well as in the period of 1965-2016 and economic growth is undeniable that influenced also by the five variables. The purpose of this research is to know the influence of the five variables on the value of GDP used as an indicator to measure economic growth in Indonesia from 1965-2016 in the short term (1 year) and long term (more than 1 year) using Error Correction Model (ECM) method to avoid the occurrence of spurious regression due to unstable data. Based on the results of the analysis, it is found that in the short term only GGFCE variables that have no effect on GDP, while in long term variables HFCE, GGFCE, Export, Import, and GFCF have an effect on GDP.