PERBANDINGAN METODE PERAMALAN FUZZY TIME SERIES “SECOND-ORDER” DAN FUZZY TIME SERIES “STEVENSON & PORTER” PADA PERAMALAN KONSUMSI BATUBARA (Studi Kasus: Tiga Negara dengan Konsumsi Batubara Terbesar di Asia Tenggara Tahun 1996-2015)

Abstract

Coal is one of the non-renewable natural resources. The use of coal is generally used as a steam power plant. Coal is the main source of energy in electricity generation. At least 27% of the world's total energy output and more than 39% of all electricity is generated by coal-fired power plants. Increased consumption of coal in the domestic market is due to the large number of steam power plants. So it takes prediction of coal consumption to determine the policy to be taken. Fuzzy Time Series is one of the Soft Computing methods that have been used and applied in time series data analysis. Fuzzy Time Series has advantages that do not require assumptions such as forecasting with classical methods. In this research apply the method of Fuzzy Time Series Second-Order (FTSS) and Stevenson & Porter (FTSSP). The data used are the data of the three largest coal consumption countries in Southeast Asia, namely Indonesia, Vietnam and Thailand. In predicting the largest coal consumption using the Fuzzy Time Series Secound-Order method, the RMSE value for Indonesia is 2,8 and the MAPE value is 7,9, the RMSE value is 1,1 and the MAPE value is 10,9 and for Thailand the RMSE value is 1,1 and MAPE value of 8,3, the method of Fuzzy Time Series Stevenson & Porter obtained RMSE value for Indonesia of 1,8 and MAPE value of 3.3, for Vietnam RMSE value of 0,9 and MAPE value of 5,9 And for Thailand with RMSE value of 0,6 and MAPE value of 3,2.