PERBANDINGAN METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DAN FUZZY TIME SERIES LOGIKA RUEY CHYN TSAUR PADA PERAMALAN JUMLAH PENUMPANG PESAWAT DOMESTIK DI BANDARA INTERNASIONAL SOEKARNO-HATTA

Abstract

The development of airports in Indonesia in transportation infrastructure has been very fast, this can be seen by many companies or who serve both domestic and international flight services. As well as the amount of money spent at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport that spends time every day for special events or some events and events such as on the Eid al-Fitr, Christmas and New Year's holidays. Therefore, a forecasting analysis is needed to determine the development of domestic aircraft at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport in December 2018. The data used consists of secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), namely data on the number of airplane passengers at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport on January 2015 to November 2018. The analysis used by comparing two methods to obtain accurate forecasting results is by Triple Exponential Smoothing and Fuzzy Time Series methods Ruey Chyn Tsaur. The results of the study using the Ruey Chyn Tsaur Fuzzy Time Series method are more suitable than the Triple Exponential Smoothing method, because it has a small error value of MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) of 4.54% and MSE (Mean Square Error) of 9,773. 836,405. The total number of domestic airplane passengers in December 2018 at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport is 1,767,893 passengers, which means reducing the number of previous months.