Pengaruh produksi,harga internasional, nilai tukar, dan kebijakan pemerintah terhadap volume ekspor Batubara di Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia's reliance on coal amidst global and domestic energy transition dynamics, alongside macroeconomic fluctuations such as national production, international prices, exchange rates, and government regulations, necessitates an in-depth empirical analysis of coal export volume determinants. This study aims to analyze the effects of coal production, international benchmark price (HBA), exchange rate (USD/IDR), and government policy on Indonesia's coal export volume from 2016 to 2024. A quantitative econometric approach is employed using monthly time-series secondary data () gathered from official institutions including the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), Bank Indonesia, Directorate General of Mineral and Coal, and Trading Economics. An Error Correction Model (ECM) is estimated to capture short-run adjustment dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships. The empirical findings reveal that coal production exerts a statistically significant positive effect on export volume in both the short and long run. The exchange rate displays a significant positive impact in the short run, whereas the international coal price exhibits a significant negative long-run relationship driven by contract rigidities and Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) enforcement. Government policy (mining moratoriums and periodic export bans) significantly reduces long-run export volumes to safeguard national energy security. The Error Correction Term () coefficient of -0.7338 () indicates that 73.38% of short-run disequilibrium is corrected towards long-run equilibrium monthly. Governments are advised to formulate holistic export policies that harmonize domestic energy security with sustainable energy transition strategies.